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Teori Pengambilan Keputusan (Theory of Decision Making)

Kebijakan adalah suatu tindakan yang mengarah pada tujuan tertentu yang dilakukan oleh seorang aktor atau beberapa aktor berkenaan dengan suatu masalah. Tindakan para aktor kebijakan dapat berupa pengambilan keputusan yang biasanya bukan merupakan keputusan tunggal, artinya kebijakan diambil dengan cara mengambil beberapa keputusan yang saling terkait dengan masalah yang ada. Pengambilan keputusan dapat diartikan sebagai pemilihan alternatif terbaik dari beberapa pilihan alternatif yang tersedia. Ada beberapa teori yang paling sering digunakan dalam mengambil kebijakan yaitu :

1. Teori Rasional Komprehensif

Barangkali toari pengambilan keputusan yang biasa digunakan dan diterima oleh banyak kalangan aadalah teori rasional komprehensif yang mempunyai beberapa unsur

a. Pembuatan keputusan dihadapkan pada suatu masalah tertentu yang dapat dibedakan dari masalah-masalah lain atau setidaknya dinilai sebagai masalah-masalah yang dapat diperbandingkan satu sama lain (dapat diurutkan menurut prioritas masalah)

b. Tujuan-tujuan, nilai-nilai atau sasaran yang menjadi pedoman pembuat keputusan sangat jelas dan dapat diurutkan prioritasnya/kepentingannya.

c. Bermacam-macam alternatif untuk memecahkan masalah diteliti secara saksama.

d. Asas biaya manfaat atau sebab-akibat digunakan untuk menentukan prioritas.

e. Setiap alternatif dan implikasi yang menyertainya dipakai untuk membandingkan dengan alternatif lain.

f. Pembuat keputusan akan memilih alternatif terbaik untuk mencapai tujuan, nilai, dan sasaran yang ditetapkan

Ada beberapa ahli antara lain Charles Lindblom , 1965 (Ahli Ekonomi dan Matematika) yang menyatakan bahwa pengambilan keputusan itu sebenarnya tidak berhadapan dengan masalah-masalah yang konkrit akan tetapi mereka seringkali mengambil keputusan yang kurang tepat terhadap akar permasalahan.

Teori rasional komprehensif ini menuntut hal-hal yang tidak rasional dalam diri pengambil keputusan. Asumsinya adalah seorang pengambil keputusan memiliki cukup informasi mengenahi berbagai alternatif sehingga mampu meramalkan secara tepat akibat-akibat dari pilihan alternatif yang ada, serta memperhitungkan asas biaya manfaatnya.dan mempertimbangkan banyak masalah yang saling berkaitan

Pengambil keputusan sering kali memiliki konflik kepentingan antara nilai-nilai sendiri dengan nilai-nilai yang diyakini oleh masyarakat. Karena teori ini mengasumsikan bahwa fakta-2 dan nilai-nilai yang ada dapat dibedakan dengan mudah, akan tetapi kenyataannya sulit membedakan antara fakta dilapangan dengan nilai-nilai yang ada.

Ada beberapa masalah diperbagai negara berkembang seperti Indonesia untuk menerapkan teori rasional komprehensif ini karena beberapa alasan yaitu

- Informasi dan data statistik yang ada tidak lengkap sehingga tidak bisa dipakai untuk dasar pengambilan keputusan. Kalau dipaksakan maka akan terjadi sebuah keputusan yang kurang tepat.

- Teori ini diambil/diteliti dengan latar belakang berbeda dengan nagara berkembang ekologi budanyanya berbeda.

- Birokrasi dinegara berkembang tidak bisa mendukung unsur-unsur rasional dalam pengambilan keputusan, karena dalam birokrasi negara berkembang kebanyakan korup sehingga menciptakan hal-hal yang tidak rasional.

2. Teori Inkremental

Teori ini dalam mengambil keputusan dengan cara menghindari banyak masalah yang harus dipertimbangkan dan merupakan madel yang sering ditempuh oleh pejabat-pejabat pemerintah dalam mengambail keputusan. Teori ini memiliki pokok-pokok pikiran sebagai berikut:

a. Pemilihan tujuan atau sasaran dan analisis tindakan empiris yang diperlukan untuk mencapanya merupakan hal yang saling terkait.

b. Pembuat keputusan dianggap hanya mempertimbangkan beberapa alternatif yang langsung berhubungan dengan pokok masalah, dan alternatif-alternatif ini hanya dipandang berbeda secara inkremental atau marjinal

c. Setiap alternatif hanya sebagian kecil saja yang dievaluasi mengenahi sebab dan akibatnya.

d. Masalah yang dihadapi oleh pembuat keputusan di redifinisikan secara teratur dan memberikan kemungkinan untuk mempertimbangkan dan menyesuaikan tujuan dan sarana sehingga dampak dari masalah lebih dapat ditanggulangi.

e. Tidak ada keputusan atau cara pemecahan masalah yang tepat bagi setiap masalah. Sehingga keputusan yang baik terletak pada berbagai analisis yang mendasari kesepakatan guna mengambil keputusan.

f. Pembuatan keputusan inkremental ini sifatnya dalah memperbaiki atau melengkapi keputusan yang telah dibuat sebelumnya guna mendapatkan penyempurnaan.

Karena diambil berdasarkan berbagai analisis maka sangat tepat diterapkan bagi negara-negara yang memiliki struktur mejemuk. Keputusan dan kebijakan diambil dengan dasar saling percaya diantara berbagai pihak sehingga secara politis lebih aman. Kondisi yang realistik diberbagi negara bahwa dalam menagmbil keputusan/kebijakan para pengambil keputusan dihadapkan pada situasi kurang baik seperti kurang cukup waktu, kurang pengalaman, dan kurangnya sumber-sumber lain yang dipakai untuk analsis secara komprehensif.

Teori ini dapat dikatakan sebagai model pengambilan keputusan yang membuahkan hasil terbatas, praktis dan dapat diterima.

Ada beberapa kelemahan dalam teori inkremental ini

- keputusan–keputusan yang diambil akan lebih mewakili atau mencerminkan kepentingan dari kelompok yang kuat dan mapan sehingga kepentingan kelompok lemah terabaikan.

- Keputusan diambil lebih ditekankan kepada keputusan jangka pendek dan tidak memperhatikan berbagai macam kebijakan lain

- Dinegara berkembang teori ini tidak cocok karena perubahan yang inkremental tidak tepat karena negara berkembang lebih membutuhkan perubahan yang besar dan mendasar.

- Menutut Yehezkel Dror (1968) gaya inkremental dalam membuat keputusan cenderung mengahsilkan kelambanan dan terpeliharanya status quo

3. Teori Pengamatan Terpadu (Mixed Scaning Theory)

Beberapa kelemahan tersebut menjadi dasar konsep baru yaitu seperti yang dikemukakan oleh ahli sosiologi organisasi Aitai Etzioni yaitu pengamatan terpadu (Mixid Scaning) sebagai suatu pendektan untuk mengambil keputusan baik yang bersifat fundamental maupun inkremental. Keputusan-keputusan inkremental memberikan arahan dasar dan melapangkan jalan bagi keputusan-keputusan fundamental sesudah keputusan-keputusan itu tercapai.

Model pengamatan terpadu menurut Etzioni akan memungkinkan para pembuat keputusan menggunakan teori rasional komprehensif dan teori inkremental pada situasi yang berbeda-beda.

Model pengamatan terpadu ini pada hakikatnya merupakan pendekatan kompromi yang menggabungkan pemanfaatan model rasional komprehensif dan model inkremental dalam proses pengambilan keputusan.


249 Comments »

  1. Daniel eko said :
    18 June 2009 at 2:32 am

    hai, saya daniel saya sedang mebuat tugas kuliah tentang proses pengambilan keputusan terhadap seorang psk.
    apa kaka punya teori tentang pengambilan secara jelas n lengkap dalam bahasa indonesia?
    kalau ada dan boleh sya mau pergunakan buat tgs saya..
    bisa sya minta daftar pustaka dari theory tersebut dan penciptanya…
    kbari saya via email yah secepatnya tq

  2. mulyono said :
    26 June 2009 at 11:11 am

    mas eko anda bisa membaca buku tentang teori pengambilan keputusan. tapi kebanyakan bahasa inggris. tetapi ada beberapa yang bisa anda gunakan untuk referensi dalam bahasa Indonesia
    1. Etzioni, Amitai, Mixed Scaning : A thirh Approach to Decision Making, Public
    Adminitrasion Review, 1987
    2. Lindblom, C.E, The policy Making Process, Englewood Clifts, N.J. Prentice Hall, 1968
    2. Solichin Abdul Wahab,1991. Analisis Kebijakan dari Formulasi ke Implementasi
    Kebijakan Negara. Jakarta. Bumi Aksara
    3. STEPHEN ROBBINS, tentang Perilaku Organisasi

  3. mulyono said :
    26 June 2009 at 1:15 pm

    Adik eko untuk yang berbahasa indonesia ada beberapa teori tentang pengambilan keputusan sebagai berikut
    1: Azhar Kasim, Teori Pembuatan Keputusan, Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi
    Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 19951
    2: Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Analisa Keputusan, Pendekatan Sistem dalam
    manajemen Usaha dan Proyek, cetakan IV, Ganeca Exact, Bandung, 1986
    3: Sri Mulyono, Teori Pengambilan Keputusan, Edisi Revisi, LPFE-UI, Jakarta, 1996
    4: M, Iqbal Hasan,Teori Pengambilan Keputusan (pokok-pokok materi),Ghalia
    Indonesia, Jakarta,2002

  4. shafiya said :
    6 July 2009 at 9:26 pm

    mas mulyono , blh tau ga…teori-teori yang di atas referensinya dari mana?
    trimakasih…

  5. mulyono said :
    9 July 2009 at 7:38 am

    mbak shafiya kan dijawaban commentnya mas eko dah tak kasih referensinya

  6. dessy pratiwi said :
    14 September 2009 at 1:27 pm

    Untuk menambah perluasan topik ataupun referensi pada situs ini Kami memiliki beberapa koleksi ebook pembelajaran yang digunakan di Universitas Gunadarma yang berhubungan dengan teori pengambilan keputusan, silahkan anda kunjungi situs kami http://elearning.gunadarma.ac.id
    Terima kasih

  7. foxtrot said :
    8 February 2010 at 12:43 pm

    saya ambil buat materi kuliah, biltus…

  8. zo said :
    5 March 2010 at 9:34 pm

    hi, saya zo saya sedang membuat tugas kulia tentang peran sistem informasi administrasi kependudukan terhadap pengambilan keputusan
    kakak saya mau minta tolong kalau membuat indikasi masalah pengambilan keputusan yang baik itu apa saja ya kak ?
    kalau referensi teori pengambilan keputusan yang bahasa indonesia apa kakak ada ?
    kabari saya via email y secepatnya saya tunggu
    thx

  9. deni sagita said :
    18 March 2010 at 8:09 pm

    saya boleh tau g materi ini tentang ap aj yang sudah dipelajari?? boleh tw g sumber asal mula dari pangambilan keputusan ini??? dan penjelasan ap aj didalam pengambilan keputusan ini? tolong jawab pertanyaan saya karena saya lagi ditugaskan untuk mencari mengambil keputusan karena itu penting bagi saya ? wasalam ???

  10. riby said :
    10 April 2010 at 1:10 am

    hai.. nama saya riby,mahasiswa komunikasi.. saya sekarang sedang membuat skripsi tentang pengambilan keputusan pendidikan formal anak. saya sedang kesulitan mencari teori yang pas untuk penelitian saya. saya mohon untuk bantuannya atau referensi yang bisa saya pakai. karena saya kesulitan untuk mendapatkan buku tentang pengambilan keputusan di daerah saya. saya harap ada yang bisa memberikan referensi melalui web. Trims,..
    sekali lagi saya mohon bantuannya..
    wassalam

  11. Puspitaningrum said :
    5 May 2010 at 3:55 pm

    saya mau tanya, itu teorinya siapa?tolong dicantumkan literaturnya.thanks

  12. Agè Ém said :
    11 October 2010 at 10:34 pm

    ..Saya Copas ya mas Mulyono??!
    Lagi kerja tugas nih,,,

  13. Carlie said :
    10 August 2011 at 5:59 pm

    Glad I’ve filnaly found something I agree with!

  14. Dana said :
    17 August 2011 at 5:56 pm

    Pak mulyono…
    saya sedang mebuat tugas kuliah tentang proses pengambilan keputusan terhadap penentuan lokasi pembangunan pabrik kayu. buku pedomanya ap ja ya pak? bapak ga buat buku.
    terimaksih

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    saya sedang membuat skripsi tentang “Kebijakan Pem Timor Leste Mendeportasi WNI Nov 2004″ saya bingung mau menggunakan teori peng kebijakan yg mana..buku apa dan karya siapa..?? katanya saya disuruh mencari bukunya pak mochtar masoed… bisa gak sya di bantu…???

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